*NIFTY:* *BE READY FOR ROCKING DECEMBER-2017*
I’m expecting NIFTY50 will cross 10500 level by November expiry. And as per economic calendar few events will be in December like…
DECEMBER – 2017
5-6 Dec – RBI Policy
9 Dec – Phs 1 Gujarat Election
12-13 Dec – US FED Policy
14 Dec – Phs 2 Gujarat Election
18 Dec – Gujarat and Himachal Pradesh Results
So I’m assuming, all come outs will be positive from these all events and in that case, market may touch the mark of 10800 level on positive cards (And may Hold few days for buildup positions). So at that time may be all OUTLOOKS will be positive and very pinky.
But, as we aware market had started journey from 6955 level to reach 10500 and above level. As per me, “if we are talking 6955 as a point A and 10500 is a B than NIFTY50 moved around 50% within 22 months (Feb-16 to Dec-17)”. So, NIFTY50 will take a RETRACEMENT for next journey. Above 10500 will be for SELL and DISTRIBUTION ONLY.
And I believe, main game is in derivatives market not in Equity Market. So, I’m expecting and assuming that, F&O position will provide indications and hopefully we can understand that properly AND at on right time. SO, *BE READY FOR ROCKING DECEMBER.*
I think this is also a big indication, *BIG TRADE HAPPENED (21-11-2017)*: Nifty Dec 9800-PE traded 18.15 lac shrs @ 31.25 with NIFTY-NOV-FUT reference of 10350.
I’m expecting market is likely to give a big fall in December month around 10-15% from the High (around 10800 (10650 is a benchmark level) + or – 100 pts).
*THIS IS MY PERSONAL VIEW AND FOR EDUCATIONAL PURPOSE ON MY ASSUMPTIONS BASED ONLY*
*NIFTY: Looking For Insights & Wisdom!*
Yesterday, NIFTY50 bounced back from 9687 in spot level and that was a good support also for market before crossing 10K mark. There is no any good data in domestic front right now, agreed on that. Despite domestic flows, people believe, these flows may not able to hold NIFTY50 because; FIIs are aggressive sellers as valuation wise and on weak Rupee. But I believe, we need to focus on long term story or stock specific story, like government spendings on Infrastructures, housing for all, Rail Infra developments, lithium batteries and electric vehicles and defense. I also believe, people are looking historical data to predict weakness or weak months for stock markets. I read somewhere, *”We’re looking for insights and wisdom, not hard laws and proofs”*. So, I am expecting something different from everyone, If institutions having cash (MFs have approximate 48500 Cr. cash on ended of Aug-17) because, lack of investments ideas or valuation issues. Market came down around 4.75 % (Nifty50 High 10170 to Nifty50 Low 9687) on FIIs heavy selling of around 22,423 Cr till in this month. And if any further down fall will be the best opportunities for institutions to deploy cash in market and they will definitely supports the good story base stocks.
We are positive on our fundamentals stocks MOIL, TRIVENI ENG, WEST COST PAPER.
And, looking some stocks good at CMP Ashok Leyland, JSW Energy, HUDCO these all have good story or technical view.
Nifty50 is trying to hold above 9600 levels from last 3 days, GDP numbers were surprising for all bulls.
As I am trying to read all data from expiry, whole last week of May-17 expiry was full of negative news and FIIs were seller at every level. Than after Nifty had given strong expiry closed at 9500.
FIIs had sold out around 30 Lacs Nifty50 Future in last 3 days and currently options side, around 59 Lacs OI in 9500-PE option and after that highest OI 60 Lacs at 9400-PE. And call sied highest OI 45.43 Lacs in 9700-CE and 41.79 Lacs in 9600-CE. So data is very clear and indicating that, this is a fight between bulls and bears. So market may take some time and clear the trend on events. As per me currently Level-1 9550 and Level-2 9450 are most important for market for up move. FOR June is a long month for expiry; all companies had provided their results so no negative balance on results, monsoon likely to normal as per estimates.
So, I believe, Nifty50 likely to surprise again all of us and likely to touch 10000 by this month. But, this is my personal view only. Hope for the Best with finger crossed.
Opinion: “Situation Is Better Than A Statistic!!!”
I was trying to write from last 4 to 5 days, I tried very hard to find this, putting your thoughts in front of others with direction are also hard. I understood that from this. But, I found this. I am really very surprised; people are still waiting for down fall because numbers are not giving indication. I heard from many people they are asking, where are the numbers? And saying Market can’t go up without numbers, may fall like same as earlier 2008 & 2001. And market is going up without hearing that negativity.
But I am really very positive on market not because of I am running with trend but, remember those situations. Those both falls in 2001 and 2008 were different situations. Those situations are not here. I would like to share something which I read in 100 Baggers. I think this is the best match with current situation. “There is a Wall Street saying that, a situation Is Better Than A Statistic”. Relying only on published growth trends, profit margins and price-earnings ratios is not as important as understanding how a company could create value in the years ahead. India is growing faster than among and even can grow faster if policies problems can removed which are coming from old government from many years. We have a big domestic consumption story among the all others. Government have full power to clear all problems. And I have a faith that, government is on right track and if right track is there than numbers will be come out not today but tomorrow surely.
My last option was after FED hiked March (16-03-2017). I am trying to read again & match that with current momentum. (Opinion: NIFTY may touch 10000 to 10500 level in 4 months. http://wp.me/p7kWKP-64 ). Now I think market is really waiting for some big trigger and that will be a big move and may be in range of 9850 to 10000 by end of June or first week of July and by the end of August market will be in range of 10200 to 10800.
But, Approach should be conscious and must stay optimistic. Don’t react as a blind. Need to check, Company can grow for longer periods. Management should be stronger for good growth and focus should be clear on business and aware about all changes in domestic and global technology and environment. We don’t want KODAK till bankruptcy or SATYAM COMPUTER with us. We need same like Amazon & Google. Our market can pay as same like “Baahubali”. Just focus and find out growth stories and faithful managements.
(Note: This is just my personal opinion only)